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How Unaffordable is Health Care and What Can We Do About It?



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For decades, the cost of medical care, prescription drugs and health insurance has consistently risen faster than general inflation and wage growth, posing financial challenges for government, businesses and people. KFF polling has found that the cost of health care ranks as the top economic worry for adults and their families, and has implications for their financial security and access to care. Even people with insurance say they struggle to afford health care costs, and health care debt is a burden for a large share of Americans. Policymakers and experts across the ideological spectrum define affordability in different ways and have different policy solutions.

At 12:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, July 21, three experts will join Health Wonk Shop series moderator Larry Levitt in an hour-long discussion of health care affordability. During the discussion, panelists will consider affordability from a variety of perspectives, including how to define affordability and the question of affordability for whom, how to measure it, and what can be done to address affordability and the underlying cost of health care.

Moderator

Photo of Larry Levitt

Larry Levitt

Executive Vice President for Health Policy

Panelists

Sherry Glied

Professor of Public Service, New York University’s Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service

Benedic Ippolito

Senior Fellow in Economic Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute

Photo of Ashley Kirzinger

Ashley Kirzinger

Director of Survey Methodology, Associate Director for Public Opinion and Survey Research



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In Preliminary Rate Filings, ACA Marketplace Insurers Largely Propose Double-Digit Premium Increase For 2027, Following a Steep Climb This Year 



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ACA Marketplace insurers are proposing a median premium increase of 14% for 2027— indicating a likely second consecutive year of double-digit increases, according to a new analysis of preliminary rate filings in 16 states and DC. If these increases hold, typical premiums for insurers participating in the ACA Marketplaces would jump by more than one-third between 2025 and 2027.

Across the 77 ACA Marketplace insurers in the 16 states and DC that have submitted rate filings so far, most are requesting premium increases of between 10% and 20% for 2027, with 20 insurers requesting premium increases of more than 20%.  

July 15 is the deadline for health insurance companies to submit their proposed premiums for 2027 ACA Marketplace plans. These preliminary filings provide insight into the factors insurers expect to drive health costs for the coming year. Among the key drivers, insurers cite the rising cost of health services, the expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits, and some federal regulatory changes.

  • The rising cost of health services have been driven by the cost of hospitalizations, physician visits, and prescription drugs—including GLP-1s and other specialty medications. Relatedly, labor shortages and general economic inflation have driven up provider wages and costs, increasing the cost of health services as well. The underlying cost of medical care and prescription drugs has risen by 10% for 2027—greater than the 8% average growth seen over the last few years.
  • The ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits expired at the end of 2025—leading to a 58% average increase in out-of-pocket premiums in 2026 and deductibles of about $1,000 more per person. Most Marketplace enrollees are largely protected from the premium increases because they still qualify for ACA subsidies, though at a lower level. However, people with incomes at 400% or more of the federal poverty level ($62,600 for a single person in 2026) lost subsidies entirely when the enhanced credits expired and, therefore, face the full increase in premiums. This caused many healthier enrollees to leave the ACA Marketplaces in 2026, leaving behind a smaller number of enrollees who are somewhat sicker and more expensive to cover on average. Further market deterioration is expected heading into 2027. Insurers estimate that the sicker risk pool drove 2026 premiums up by roughly four percentage points and expect another four percentage point increase in 2027.
  • Federal regulatory changes, including the recent Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters and the Marketplace Integrity and Affordability Rule, have also been cited as having an upward effect on premiums.  

The full analysis and other data on health costs are available on the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, an online information hub dedicated to monitoring and assessing the performance of the U.S. health system.



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The Trump Administration Continues to Advance Incremental Site-Neutral Payment Reforms



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The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) recently released the 2027 proposed rule for Medicare’s hospital outpatient prospective payment system (OPPS), including new site-neutral payment reforms for certain imaging services. Site-neutral payment reforms seek to align reimbursement for a given service across care settings, subject to safety and quality safeguards. To that end, the proposed rule includes a 60 percent reduction in reimbursement for imaging services (like X-rays and MRIs) without contrast when provided in off-campus hospital outpatient departments (HOPDs) beginning in 2027, a change intended to better align reimbursement with that of other settings. The reform would not apply to most rural hospitals (79%), as critical access hospitals are not reimbursed under the OPPS and the proposed change carves out rural sole community hospitals. The Administration’s proposed changes for certain imaging services would further advance site-neutral payment reform but, like prior changes, are modest relative to more expansive options raised by MedPAC and others.

The Administration’s Proposed Changes for Certain Imaging Services Would Further Advance Site-Neutral Reform but Are Modest Relative to More Expansive Options (Table)

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected that site-neutral reforms for imaging services in off-campus HOPDs would generate $7.6 billion in federal savings over ten years, while reforms for services commonly provided in physician offices for both on- and off-campus HOPDs would save $156.9 billion (see Figure 1) (this estimate predated recent drug administration reforms; CBO estimated that drug administration reforms would save $5.6 billion over ten years). The former is broader than CMS’s proposed change, as it also includes imaging services with contrast. The latter is similar in spirit to options raised by MedPAC and others, which in at least some cases would also apply to services commonly provided in ambulatory surgical centers. Another relatively expansive option would extend reforms broadly to services at all off-campus HOPDs (not shown). CMS estimates that proposed changes for imaging services without contrast would reduce net Medicare program spending by $7.2 billion over ten years and beneficiary cost sharing and premiums by a total of $4.9 billion over ten years.

CMS’s current proposal follows other incremental site-neutral payment reforms that Medicare has implemented over time. This includes site-neutral payment reforms introduced through legislation (for all services provided in relatively new off-campus HOPDs, beginning in 2017) and through rulemaking (for clinic visits in off-campus HOPDs, beginning in 2019, and for drug administration services, beginning in 2026). Given this history, it is likely that CMS will consider making additional site-neutral payment reforms through future rulemaking. For example, CMS signaled interest in the past in potentially applying reforms to on-campus clinic visits, an option MedPAC has also raised. It is not yet clear whether the hospital industry will, as it has done in the past, bring legal challenges to CMS’s efforts to introduce reforms through the rulemaking process.

Medicare site-neutral payment reforms to date have focused on off-campus HOPDs. Reforms would generate much larger savings if extended to on-campus HOPDs. For example, one study estimated that site-neutral payment reforms for all services at off-campus HOPDs would reduce federal spending by $28.3 billion over ten years (an estimate that predated CMS’s implementation of this policy for drug administration services), while reforms for services in on-campus HOPDs more commonly provided in physician offices or ambulatory surgical centers would save $119.3 billion over ten years.  

When exploring additional reforms, policymakers and regulators will likely weigh potential savings against the impact on hospital finances and access to care, among other considerations. While there has been bipartisan support for site-neutral reforms, it’s unclear how much momentum remains following the enactment of large reductions to federal health care spending as part of the 2025 budget reconciliation package, once known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” As a result of these changes, there may be greater interest in limiting or offsetting the impact of site-neutral payment reforms on certain providers, such as rural hospitals that are not already exempt or urban safety-net hospitals.



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Cost and Utilization of Inpatient Mental Health and Substance Use Treatment



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Inpatient treatment for mental health and substance use accounted for 10% of total commercial inpatient stays in 2023 (or 32 per 10,000 enrollees). The average (mean) total inpatient cost (including the share paid by the insurer and the share paid by the patient) for a mental health admission was $15,900 and for a substance use admission was $15,500.

Using claims data from the 2023 Merative MarketScan Commercial Claims Database, this Peterson-KFF analysis describes the most common diagnoses for inpatient treatment and total associated costs, including patients’ out-of-pocket share.

This brief is available through the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, an online information hub dedicated to monitoring and assessing the performance of the U.S. health system.



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Did the Affordable Care Act Make Health Care More Affordable?



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KFF designs, conducts and analyzes original public opinion and survey research on Americans’ attitudes, knowledge, and experiences with the health care system to help amplify the public’s voice in major national debates.



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What Your Employer-Based Health Coverage Really Costs



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KFF designs, conducts and analyzes original public opinion and survey research on Americans’ attitudes, knowledge, and experiences with the health care system to help amplify the public’s voice in major national debates.



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How Unaffordable is Health Care? 



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KFF designs, conducts and analyzes original public opinion and survey research on Americans’ attitudes, knowledge, and experiences with the health care system to help amplify the public’s voice in major national debates.



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How Unaffordable is Health Care? A Short Video Series from KFF



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KFF designs, conducts and analyzes original public opinion and survey research on Americans’ attitudes, knowledge, and experiences with the health care system to help amplify the public’s voice in major national debates.



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Health Care Costs Keep Rising … Why and Who Pays?



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KFF designs, conducts and analyzes original public opinion and survey research on Americans’ attitudes, knowledge, and experiences with the health care system to help amplify the public’s voice in major national debates.



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Video: Health Care Affordability at the Macro Level



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KFF designs, conducts and analyzes original public opinion and survey research on Americans’ attitudes, knowledge, and experiences with the health care system to help amplify the public’s voice in major national debates.



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